A brief recap. On today, March 9th, in the year of our lord 2008, 9 Democratic primaries remain in this election season. According to CNN, Barack Obama has 1,527 delegates, and Hillary Clinton has 1,428. This has Obama in the lead by 99 delegates. Close race, no? Anyone's race, right?
Well. Not really. The numbers are deceiving for two reasons. First, these include superdelegates. They can change their minds at any point up until the convention. So let's get rid of them, and take another look. Obama 1,328, Clinton 1,190. Obama ahead by 138. So what, you say? That's not that big of a lead. She can still make it! FIGHT TO THE CONVENTION! DFKGDJSK! RAHHCVHDFK!
Well, again, not really. Democratic delegates are distributed on a proportional level. So even if you don't win a state's primary, you still receive some delegates, roughly equal to the percentage of the vote you earned. Basically, no one really loses big, unless it's a blow out. For example. Hillary Clinton won Ohio 54%-44%. A ten percent lead. But in terms of delegates, she got 71, and he got 59. A net gain of 12 delegates for her. Not the crushing win it would seem.
All Democratic contests split this way. What does this mean, you ask? Since Mr. Obama would 11 straight contests, with a minimum lead of 17% (and a maximum lead of 82% [!!! Thank you U.S Virgin Islands!]), he netted a lot of delegates. 5 or 6 here, 8 there, etc. This added up. Now he has that 138 delegate lead.
How does Hillary catch up? By winning. A lot. Big. Take a look at this link. That's slate.com's delegate counter. The top bar allows you to set percentages for the primary season as a whole, and the individual ones for each individual contest. Let's do some analysis of it.
Get that top bar. Keep dragging it over towards Clinton. The others will move with it. Keep dragging until it says on the bottom "Clinton has the pledged delegate lead, but will need at least "X" superdelegates to reach 2,025." See the percentages there? Shocking, isn't it?
For those too lazy/stubborn to do this, the number is 62%. Senator Clinton would need to win every remaining contest with on average 62% of the vote in order to regain the pledged delegate lead. Sixty-two percent.
But that's not gonna happen. In fact, we're sure of it. Obama has already won Wyoming, which happened yesterday. He won 61%-39%, making a 7-5 delegate split. Oops. There goes her delegate lead already. Now let's go to the rest of the contests.
Mississippi is this Tuesday. Obama is favored by varying amounts. Let's be conservative and give it to him with 51%-49%. It's likely he'll win significantly more than that, but let's just make it a Clinton dream scenario.
Furthermore, Obama is favored in Montana and South Dakota as well as North Carolina. Let's give them to him again with 51% of the vote, even though this is even more unrealistic. Obama has done exceedingly well in many a)mid and mountain west states and b) caucus states. Boom. He's ahead big. Try re-adjusting and then adding our modifications again.
If you don't want to, I'll tell you. Her percentage has moved up to 67%. She then needs to win 67% of all remaining primaries to beat Obama's pledged delegate leads. Certainly, this is an absurd assumption. Many states show them running neck-and-neck, and even states with one of them leading certainly don't show Sen. Clinton with 67% of the vote. Too bad she's only broken 65% in one state, Arkansas. And she couldn't even do it in her home state of NY.
You think that's bad? It gets worse. Even if, IF, somehow she pulls off this nearly impossible feat, she's not done. She somehow has to convince around 420 superdelegates to support her. 52% of all superdelegates. And that's not the way things are going lately. According to DemConWatch's Superdelegate Tracker, the trend is clearly towards Obama.
Not looking too rosy, eh? Even if she manages to do ALL THAT, she still has a vastly divided Democratic party to deal with. Combine that with her continued underperformance in general election matchups, and well....prepare for 100 more years of Iraq.
Of course, she could always try to win by using Superdelegates to overturn pledged delegates and the will of the people. But that wouldn't be too Democratic, would it? Well, neither is endorsing John McCain.
So Senator Clinton, from me to you, drop out. You're just wasting your time, your supporter's money, and our chances of getting a Democratic president. You had your chance, and people chose hope and change over fear and lies. Now fade away gracefully so we can rid the party of the Clinton menace forever.
The end.
P.S if you read all this, thank you.
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1 comment:
Right on friend. The thought of having a president who is really smart and speaks eloquently at the top of his intelligence is one that I'm happily struggling to get used to. I comment on the delegate math and more in my blog (you'll have to scroll down a little).
http://thankodog.blogspot.com/
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