Check this out.

Check out these babies.






Encouraging, ain't it? But when you look at the actual polls, they give an even further story.

In the Obama matchup:



Look at that. Some things I noticed:

-SUSA gave McCain NJ on the Obama map, even though they tie there. Seems odd considering NJ has been consistently blue for 20 years now.
-TEXAS is competitive, according to the polls. Yeah, I have no idea how that happened. McCain takes it by 1%, making it firmly up in the air.
-McCain also wins Florida and Nebraska by 2 and 3 percent, respectively, making them also effectively swing states.
-Virginia is a tie they gave to Obama. I'm not so sure about that, but VA turning blue is my big hope for this year.

Conclusion: This map, if it holds to November, could contain a much larger Obama victory than it appears to. Obama could get as many as 367 (!) electoral votes, or as few as 246, with 8 states within a 3% range. McCain is favored in 3, Obama in 5. McCain would have to win at least 2 out of his 3 to beat Obama, while Obama simply needs to hold the ones he has on the map.


Now to Clinton:



-Michigan they gave to McCain, even though the vote is tied. I don't know, I have a hard time imagining Hillary losing MI.
-New Mexico, which is firmly in Obama's column, is tied for Hillary, but they gave it to her anyway.
-Washington state is given to McCain on the map, but is within 2 points in the polls. Firmly undecided.
-For all of Hillary's supposed strength in PA, she only wins by 1%. Tossup for sure.
-Tennessee! Wow. Hillary is tied with Big Mac there. That'd be a nice flip if we can swing it.

Conclusion: Hillary's map makes a few more assumptions for both her and McCain. I'd say that matchup is still a tossup, with Hillary favored, in my book at least. She could get as many as 315 or as few as 255, with 4 states within a 3% margin. A much more static matchup.


Overall? First, I think SUSA is being a little irresponsible handing out EVs for states well within the margin of error. A third category would be nice. But secondly, it shows that this election, regardless of who we nominate, is Democrat favored. I think you were as shocked as I was when you saw Texas, Tennessee and Virginia could all be competitive. This is our election to lose. Let's not fuck it up again, eh?