And so it begins.

This is gonna be a long'un.

As I sit here, one week and one day before the March 4th primaries, it is an exciting time. 4 primaries. 2 supposed "firewalls". 2 almost certain others. Four contests that will most likely decide not only the Democratic presidential nominee, but the next President of the United States of America. Let's talk about them.

Ohio: This is where it will all come down to. If Hillary Clinton cannot win this, she's done for, no matter what anyone says. This IS her base. Census data largely supports this. Let's take a look. Ohio has 13.3% of people over 65, slightly above the national average of 12.4%. This should give HIllary a marginal benefit, as she's won this group in the majority of contests. There is 12% African-American, less than the national average of 12.8%. Again, a slight advantage for Hillary as Obama has taken African-American votes on average about 70-30, conservatively. As well, since it is a widely "blue collar" state, another of Hillary's purported base groups. These combined should give Hillary a built-in advantage even before she comes to campaign.

And indeed it did. As recently as 2/6, she led by 21% in a Quinnipiac poll. This poll, taken in the immediate aftermath of the much hyped "Super Duper Tuesday" draw, shows a clear and apparently insurmountable advantage, with the primary less than one month away. Now let's look at a chart.

The purple line is Clinton and the orange line is Obama. That is an intimidating rise. Polls released as recently as today show him cutting the lead to 4 points, while others show him down by 11. Regardless, he has yet to lead, and this is most likely his most challenging hurdle going in to the Second Super Tuesday.

In terms of endorsements, Hillary has the backing of a popular governor, Ted Strickland (who has recently expressed doubts he could deliver the state for her. Expectations lowering, or more?). Obama has picked up endorsements from several mayors and representatives. Net gain to Hillary.

As is (or should be) obvious by now, Obama has the Mo. Big momentum. 11 in a row, most recently the new "Democrats Abroad" primary for ex-pat Democrats. You cannot underestimate it's importance.

One more thing to look out for. Check the balance of Republican primary votes vs. Democratic primary votes. Ohio was a vital swing state in 2004, captured by Bush 51-49 amid rumors of voting irregularities and voter purges. Had Kerry won Ohio, he would have defeated George Bush 271-266. The numbers of Dem vs. Rep primary votes, if lopsided one way or the other, could point to either side's shot at taking the crucial state in November.

My final prediction: Hillary 53% Obama 47%.

More later.