We're gonna win!

I mean...what? This will be a tough fight ahead, don't count your chickens, et cetera, et cetera... Hey, lets look at some cool maps!

But first: A disclaimer. These are based on a combination of conventional wisdom (a dem IS gonna win CA, no matter who it is), current state matchups, and a little bit of my opinion here and there. I've tried to be as non-biased as possible. These are just a current snapshot of what the general election might look like if it happened to day, and I don't claim for them to be anything more than that. That said, I've never been wrong. Never. Take that one to the bank.

I've only matched up the two Democrats with John McCain, since Mike Huckabee has not a chance in hell of winning. He doesn't believe in evolution!! COME ON. Who the hell voted for this guy? Even Ron Paul has his racist internet lackies. Fucking libertarians. But I digress.

First, a little electoral college background. You need 270 to win. Anything more is just gravy. Every 10 years, electoral votes are re-proportioned based on that year's Census data. Sadly, the 2000 census was not kind to us Democrats. Republican strongholds like Texas and Georgia got 2 more votes, while Connecticut , Illinois, and Wisconsin, traditionally democratic states, lost one vote, and the extremely safe blue state of NY lost 2 votes. Basically, it became harder for Democrats to win.

This first map is my projection of Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Red state for McCain, blue state for Obama, tan states are my Undecided states.

Based on recent polls, Obama wins. Even without winning any of the tossup states, he has his 270 electoral votes. Bam, winner. He picks up the swing states of Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. New Mexico is the most iffy, since John McCain is from a neighboring state, and they poll about even there. However, I gave it to Obama based on the extremely popular Democratic governor Bill Richardson (who is hinting he may endorse Obama in the days to come, even as a prominent former member of the Clinton administration).

Colorado I also gave to Obama. While it went republican in 2000 and 2004, Democrats have been pouring resources in to the mountain west, and are even holding their National Convention there. I went out on a limb and gave it to him.

Virginia is (or should be) the biggest surprise on the list. If there's a republican state in the nation, this is it. Or it was 10 years ago. In the past 8 years, they have elected two popular Democratic governors (Tim Kaine [one of my predictions for Obama's running mate] and Mark Warner [running for the Virginia senate seat held by John Warner, no relation]). They have defeated one popular Republican senator, George Allen (famous for his 'Maccaca' moment, where he called an opponent's dark skinned campaign worker the North African equivalent of nigger), in favor of a anti-war Democrat, Jim Webb. They are on track to elect another Democrat this year by a wide margin (the previously mentioned Mark Warner). They took control of the state legislature in 2007. 2008 is the year we turn Virginia blue. Primary turnout supports this, where Democrats turned out almost double of Republicans.

Florida is McCain's. He has the backing of an extremely popular Florida governor in Charlie Crist, and the electorate is tailor made for him (read as: lots of elderly, idiots, and racists...Fuck you Florida, you piece of shit. Let's sell you the fuck back to Spain).

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri are all too close to call in my book. We'll see as time passes if anyone gains a distinct advantage.

Now let's take a look at Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain.

A far less rosy picture. Or perhaps it is more rosy, there's a lot more red up there. I don't really know. I hate adjectives. The next paragraph will use as few as humanly possible. Starting....now.

As you can see, it is considerably more difficult to imagine a Clinton win scenario. McCain has 260 electoral votes locked up, as far as I'm concerned, and he polls ahead of her in many state polls. She's closer in Florida, but is still behind, and McCain will most likely still win it. She loses Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Virginia, as well as Nevada, all states Obama wins. Democrats need BOTH undecided states to win in this scenario, according to current polls, whereas they don't need any in the Obama scenario, providing he carries all the states I gave him.

There you have it. We're gonna win. Or maybe not.

Note: The majority of polls I used are Rassumussen state polls, and can be found at the Rasmussen Reports website. Also, I used RealClearPolitics. There's a healthy smattering of SurveryUSA polls thrown in there too.

And so it begins.

This is gonna be a long'un.

As I sit here, one week and one day before the March 4th primaries, it is an exciting time. 4 primaries. 2 supposed "firewalls". 2 almost certain others. Four contests that will most likely decide not only the Democratic presidential nominee, but the next President of the United States of America. Let's talk about them.

Ohio: This is where it will all come down to. If Hillary Clinton cannot win this, she's done for, no matter what anyone says. This IS her base. Census data largely supports this. Let's take a look. Ohio has 13.3% of people over 65, slightly above the national average of 12.4%. This should give HIllary a marginal benefit, as she's won this group in the majority of contests. There is 12% African-American, less than the national average of 12.8%. Again, a slight advantage for Hillary as Obama has taken African-American votes on average about 70-30, conservatively. As well, since it is a widely "blue collar" state, another of Hillary's purported base groups. These combined should give Hillary a built-in advantage even before she comes to campaign.

And indeed it did. As recently as 2/6, she led by 21% in a Quinnipiac poll. This poll, taken in the immediate aftermath of the much hyped "Super Duper Tuesday" draw, shows a clear and apparently insurmountable advantage, with the primary less than one month away. Now let's look at a chart.

The purple line is Clinton and the orange line is Obama. That is an intimidating rise. Polls released as recently as today show him cutting the lead to 4 points, while others show him down by 11. Regardless, he has yet to lead, and this is most likely his most challenging hurdle going in to the Second Super Tuesday.

In terms of endorsements, Hillary has the backing of a popular governor, Ted Strickland (who has recently expressed doubts he could deliver the state for her. Expectations lowering, or more?). Obama has picked up endorsements from several mayors and representatives. Net gain to Hillary.

As is (or should be) obvious by now, Obama has the Mo. Big momentum. 11 in a row, most recently the new "Democrats Abroad" primary for ex-pat Democrats. You cannot underestimate it's importance.

One more thing to look out for. Check the balance of Republican primary votes vs. Democratic primary votes. Ohio was a vital swing state in 2004, captured by Bush 51-49 amid rumors of voting irregularities and voter purges. Had Kerry won Ohio, he would have defeated George Bush 271-266. The numbers of Dem vs. Rep primary votes, if lopsided one way or the other, could point to either side's shot at taking the crucial state in November.

My final prediction: Hillary 53% Obama 47%.

More later.